Saturday, March 5, 2016

Will Negative Ads and so forth Hurt Trump?

3/5/2016—Well, I would have thought so. Is Trump immune? We’ll see today, I guess. The question is, is Trump actually increasing his support or is he still at the 35% level and wins because he has so many opponents? (Trump is at 35% in Kansas in the latest poll, but might win because the rest of the vote is split). But in Louisiana and Mississippi, polls show him at over 40%--that is a real lead.

The question I’m asking is how much Trump has changed everything? Or is it just that his opponents will not cooperate? What would happen if Cruz and Rubio skipped Ohio? If only Rubio faced Trump in Florida? Trump would lose.

So, is it Trump or is it the lack of discipline and integrity among the remaining candidates that is leading Trump to the nomination? If Trump is so bad, why can’t they put their ambitions aside? And in the case of John Kasich, is it not clear that he will not be the nominee no matter what? So, why would he not tell his supporters to support Cruz or Rubio—whoever in a State has the best chance to beat Trump?

Former Utah Governor Leavitt was right that Trump could be beaten piecemeal, but only if the remaining candidates cooperated.

Would Trump win a convention in which he lacked 1237 delegates going in? On the one hand, Trump is no one’s second choice, so you would think he would not gain delegates on a second ballot.

But, Trump is slick and reckless. He has the money and connections to offer jobs to a few delegates who would put him over the top. He might be willing to risk skirting bribery laws.

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