Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Is Trump Going to be the GOP Nominee?

2/3/2016—It is still hard for me to accept that Trump is going to be the GOP nominee. Nor is it absolutely guaranteed. Trump will win some of the winner-take-all contests, but not necessarily enough to get to the 1237 necessary. So, as I heard from former Utah Governor Mike Leavitt on NPR yesterday, maybe candidates dropping out is not the best way to stop Trump.

Democrats are somewhat happy with what is going on in the Republican Party. But I don’t know. If Trump is nominated, he could win—I mean something could happen that would make Hillary unelectable. She could still be indicted.

But the most likely outcome of a Trump nomination is that Hillary would pretty easily win the Presidency and that Democrats would benefit in congressional elections as well. Hillary might be a more popular President than President Obama has been.

This scenario would repeat what happened in 2008. What would have been a hard race for Obama turned notably easier as the catastrophe with the economy became clear. Obama might well have lost otherwise. Well, Trump might ensure Hillary’s election when her negatives would have otherwise rendered her candidacy problematic. Fate favors the Democrats.

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