Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Only Ten Years Stopping an Iranian Bomb

4/8/2015—I feel like I am living in some fantasy land. I heard an analyst today say that the proposed deal with Iran is a mistake because it would only delay an Iranian bomb for ten years and after that it might be easier for Iran to build a nuclear weapon than it is today.

I would have thought that the guarantee that we would have ten years breathing space would be greeted with rapture. A lot can happen in ten years, including peace and regime change or reform.

Everything I have heard about the deal makes it sound like the real thing. And the extremes to which critics are going to criticize it makes it sound all the better.

Which brings me to the real point. What is it about Iran that makes the Israeli government so crazed? Yes, Iran backs Hezbollah and other opponents of Israel. But really doesn’t Saudi Arabia do the same thing? And Israeli seems close to a tacit deal with the Saudis.

My theory is that the problem for the Israelis is that the Iranians are actually religious. The government of Israel is basically secularist. And that is true even on the right. There is a fear of what a really religious state might do—drop a bomb to bring on the apocalypse, maybe.

But Iran has not acted in such a weird way. The country suffered horrible loses in a war with Iraq. I don’t believe they would welcome an Israeli retaliatory bomb dropped on Tehran.

We made the mistake with the Soviet Union of thinking it would risk nuclear war. That was never true. It is not true of Iran either.

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