Thursday, December 31, 2009

Predictions for the Next Decade

12/31/2009—Happy New Year to all. And how will the world look in 2020?

First the easy one. Many more states will be recognizing gay marriage.

Next easy one. Many more people will be secular and fewer people will believe in God in any traditional sense. In fact, this may be the secular decade in America and by 2020 secularists may rival believers (actually, that is my prediction for 2030).

Economic predictions: the American economy will prove much more resilient than it looks now and the Chinese economy much less so. I still do not believe that long-term economic growth is possible without democracy, the rule of law and individual liberty.

Political predictions: a more globalized world including genuine world public opinion for the first time and the beginnings of world governing institutions.

Environmental predictions: this will be the decade that global warming skepticism dies. The continuing climb in world temperatures see to that.

Religion predictions: the major religions will begin to come to terms with science and gay rights.

Conflict predictions: I do not see an end to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, unfortunately, but I do foresee the decline of militant Islam. The Muslim world will grow tired of it.

These are my predictions. Try your own.

1 comment:

  1. robert d. sebastianJanuary 4, 2010 at 2:25 PM

    And a Happy New Year to you and yours. Never being one to turn down a chance to pontificate (is that a non-secular term?) I offer the following predictions:
    Gay marriage will be recognized, but there will be a backlash about the open display of affection among gay couples. Those offended will find a basis for asserting that gay couples should return to the Victorian social mores.

    Under the penumbra "Too big to fail" the American eceonmy will always be propped up.

    I fear in my heart you are right regarding world power structures. I keep thinking back to the chill I got as a junior high student reading "1984". The minute they call something "Oceana", I'm outta here.

    I predict the legalization of marijuana with the grudging acceptance couched in economic terms. Twenty five years ago, Mike Royko wrote a column advocating legalization, conservatively estimating a tax windfall of five to ten billion dollars per year. What is present value of that amount?

    As to religion, I believe that the current plethora of non-denominational Christian churches will continue to grow as long as there are people that are willing to be led by those who pick and choose parts of the Bible and ignore the history and archaeology that provide context. It's always easier to believe than reason. That being so, I will not discount my own God-centered spirituality based on my beliefs formed over the years.

    Anyway, I hope we are here, right or wrong.